In Episode 4 of this 6-part series, we zoom in on one statistic: Completion Probability. How do you predict the likelihood that a specific pass will result in a completion? And how does this stat enhance our understanding of the game? Learn how the team collaborated with football analysts to translate domain expertise into machine learning features—from air yards to defender proximity. We’ll also discuss different ML model types (linear, tree-based, deep neural networks) and how the Next Gen Stats team settled on using XGBoost for Completion Probability.
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